well i was thinking earlier today that wilma would start moving more nw by now, but it's still sliding along at around 290. big hurricane so it can 'mitch' its way westward if it wants, but if it responds in semi-normal fashion there ought to be some more northward component shortly. the sooner it starts responding to the falling heights to the north, the less of the yucatan it's going to intercept. much better for florida in the long run for the cozumel/cancun area to take the storm down a notch. a day long crossing would probably weaken wilma 2-3 categories... but i'm going to hold with the philosophy that any crossing will be brief and not diminish the storm below category 3 strength.
as it begins to zip northeast across the southeastern gulf, there ought to be steadily increasing shear. it will also be in a high relative vorticity region south of the upper trough setting up house over the great lakes, so baroclinic forces may start acting to maintain the hurricane early. expect a 2/3 landfall in southwest florida, probably in the fort myers area. it could easily be a 1 if the storm camps over the yucatan. a lot of the guidance is closer to naples, but i'm going to stay hardheaded and not shift my landfall zone. trimming the north side, though... so now it runs from sarasota to chokoloskee... with lee and charlotte counties in the middle. the hurricane's wind field has already expanded quite a bit, and should continue expanding as it begins to accelerate into the westerlies. i'd say the the entire lower third of florida could receive hurricane force gusts from the storm... with sustained hurricane winds cutting across the state along and just south of the eye path.
the globals are still split over the recurvature endgame, but a lot of the dynamic models are starting to see phasing. some of the gfdl cousins are also showing what the popular gfdl is only seeing every other run... a very rapid, day long run from east of florida to the coast of new england, with baroclinic deepening along the way. the newer nogaps even runs the storm nap of the coast from hatteras to long island. if the worst-case scenario unfolds, the real story from wilma will be what happens in the northeast... which is already in a bad hydrologic state. fortunately a lot of the leaves up there have fallen, but even if the hurricane were to pass a good distance offshore strong gradient winds will likely result in widespread wind damage. a direct hit will entail a large coastal surge, very destructive winds throughout the region, and extreme rainfall on top of the recent rains and flooding.
wilma has the potential to cap the hurricane season off in a very bad way for parts of the east coast. if i were on the florida peninsula, outer banks, or new england coastline, i'd get my hurricane contingency plan worked out, grab supplies, and discuss the potential with my neighbors. there are three to six days for the threatened regions to prepare.
HF 0630z20october