I still see the scenario that I posited the other day unfolding, just a day delayed (heh, its the weather!)

The WV imagery clearly shows the erosion of the ridge, and the low that was over Colorado is now moving somewhat SOUTH of east. This is a change from yesterday, when there were models progging a miss by the trough pickup and that first low tracking up near Ohio - that clearly is not happening.

It looks like my original scenario is good - the original impulse gets near the gulf; the trough has more of an E/W component, then the second impulse comes down and "bends" it to a more N/S axis, picking up the storm.

I'd be wary, as I said before, anywhere from the Keys to the Tampa area or perhaps a bit north of there. Until the connection is made a good prognostication of exactly where she's going won't be able to be made, which is reflected in the size of the cone currently. Given the WV imagery and pattern evolution I do think most of the models are too far south - the cone looks good, but the "black line" within it is, IMHO, biased too far southward given the evolving pattern.

It is possible that BOTH that and a Yucatan hit happens too. The storm could hit the Cancun/Cozumel area and "bounce off" - that would be diasterous for them, although it might be better for Florida, since the interaction would tend to take some of the steam out of this beast......