The problem with that analysis, Royener, is that you're merely looking at 2 points without seeing how it got from the first point to the second. The storm's overall movement the first 3 days (from 10/15 at 5 pm to 10/18 at 5pm) was 1.9 degrees SOUTH and 1.2 degrees west. In the 42 hours since then, however, the storm has moved 2.7 degrees NORTH and 5.5 degrees west. So although the first 3 days there was no northward movement, there has been a northward component the past 42 hours.

Because the post I'm responding to is now so far back, here is Royener's post:

"Just been checking the storm history co ordinates and they show the storm as having moved 0.8deg North and 6.7deg west since its inception 5 days ago, this is historical data and should be correct, this movement can hardly be considered as west north west, it is just a couple of points north of west. at no point in its history has it shown any inclination to move north, I would think that it will hit into the Yucatan before making any significant shift. scource is wunderground storm history."