native
(Weather Guru)
Thu Oct 20 2005 01:11 PM
Re: Wilma

BloodStar - I think HankFrank mentioned something way back a couple days & hundreds of posts ago about something popping up in that general vicinity "later in the month" who knows....lets hope is doesn't like mousakkas!


Lots of hemming & hawing going on here as to the eventual whereabouts of Wilma's arrival. Here are some of my unsolicited opinions...why, at this time (or any other ) is there any reason to doubt the experience /expertise/predictions of the consumate professionals at NHC? I don't know why some of us here seem to think we've got a leg up on them? It's confounding at times. The bottom line is this: you cannot read too much into ANYTHING, not a wobble, not a model run, not a single sentence from a 3 paragraph discussion. I think it boils down to everyone's frustration at not being able to pinpoint what Mother Nature is going to ultimately do. That being said, it is the NHC's responsibility to keep the public informed not panicked . Therefore, I don't think (and I could be wrong) you'll ever hear Max Mayfield or anyone else for that matter single out any one town or city (until ofcourse it's as the storm is landfalling) It's always general (ie; SW Florida/Central Florida on south, etc, etc...) Therefore the NHC or NWS statements that may mention "insert your town name here" does not mean your doomed. They are simply imparting information NOT insinuations. Until this storm makes its turn and has its brush with or landfall with the Yucatan Penninsula, all is up in the air.

***steps off of soapbox now***

geesh, sorry about that...anywho, I don't see her making "drastic" changes and here's why:

www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/gulfvismovie.html

So far, most of what they've (NOAA/NHC) been basing their predictions on is coming slowly to fruition. That imagery is pretty powerful.



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