GFDL is always shaky in direction after 72hrs so its feeling the trough racing thru to its N and dragging it east toward Cuba. Not out of the question but I disregard anything it shows in movement after 72hrs.

Data went into the 12z models today from the NOAA Jet,,, I feel they will adjust alittle more on each mission data. The Data (from what I know and could be wrong) only shows what is going on ahead and around the system, such as in the Gulf, thing is though, conditions will change in the gulf in 12 hrs so the with the slow movement of her and changing conditions,, the long term movement wont be the same. Anotherwords, the data is good on wilma in her short term motion. Pretty much its only good for fast moving systems cause the enviroment changes, especially with a trough coming down over the weekend,, same steering flow will change. Right now we see its mainly light S-N steering over the Gulf so there is nothing to push her if she gets N of the Yucitan till the trough digs in, this is shown by the models..but when the next Noaa jet goes in and the 1 after that,,those inputs will go into the next 00z and 12z runs in the future and we will again see the short term motion of the enviroment.