| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 02:48 PM |
Re: Wilma
|
Quote:
I'd like to echo what somebody said earlier regarding the threat to Mexico. While a Yucutan landfall and subsequent stall could decimate Wilma and spare Florida a lot of problems, that scenario would likely cause a signficantly larger loss of life that what would occur with even a very strong hurricane impacting Florida somewhere. I know many of you live in Florida and are rightly concerned about your friends and family and I'm not being critical of anyone focusing too much on Florida, but parts of Mexico are facing a potentially major disaster here.
For what it's worth.... I would not be surprised if we see a concerted N component to Wilma's motion by nightfall - if that acceleration has not already begun..
The intermediate advisory by HPC has a northwest movement, which is about 10 or degree change from the 11am advisory: "WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH ...7 KM/HR." Moreover, when observing the various sat we see a tendency for the cirrus veil to be pulled more concertedly N and NE throughout the lower Gulf of Mexico then previous time intervals... Also, the northern aspect of the denser inner cirrus canopy is also beginning to oblong in N direction...
This is significat for me because the wv imagery shows a fairly strong wind maxim coming out of TX into the lower Mississippi Valley in association with fairly potent vort max moving through just to the N. I'm actually wondering if the 12z guidance is underdone with this feature, which might make them in error in the amount of left motion in the nearer term...
Anyway, for what it's worth...