Jamiewx
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Oct 20 2005 07:02 PM
NWS MLB

Large chunk of the discussion here from MLB containing some interesting information on the effects of Wilma, including possible expansion in wind field.

WX TOTALLY DEPENDANT UPON TRACK/SIZE/TIMING OF TC
WILMA. WHILE NHC FORECAST TRACK INDICATES POTENTIAL LANDFALL ALONG
SW FLORIDA COAST LATE SUNDAY AND EXITING SE COAST EARLY MONDAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DISPLAY LARGE RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY...WITH
MOST RECENT NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AGAIN SUGGESTING AN EVEN SLOWER
FORWARD MOTION...WITH POSSIBILITY OF STALL NEAR/OVER YUCATAN. LATE
AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE BASED ON 15Z NHC FORECAST. THIS
FORECAST SUGGESTS GREATEST IMPACT FROM ABOUT SUNSET SUNDAY TO
SUNRISE MONDAY...HOWEVER LATER FORECASTS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING.

DURATION OF POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT WX EXPECTED TO LAST 6-10 HOURS
BASED ON FORWARD MOTION OF 15-20 MPH ACROSS PENINSULA. INTERACTION
OF TC WITH STRONG MID LATITUDE TROUGH/FORCING...SUGGESTS TC WILL
BEGIN TRANSITION TO HYBRID/EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM NEAR THE TIME
SYSTEM EXITS ATLANTIC COAST. AS THIS PROCESS OCCURS...WIND FIELDS
WILL EXPAND AND THEREFORE AFFECT A LARGER GEOGRAPHIC AREA.
SO...WHILE TC MAY WEAKEN TO CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE BY THE TIME IT
REACHES EAST COAST...EFFECTS OF TROPICAL STORM WINDS COULD AFFECT
MUCH/ALL OF CWA IF SYSTEM TRACKS NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE OR FURTHER
NORTH. TORNADO THREAT MAY MATERIALIZE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE TC CORE AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH OUTER RAINBANDS.
RATHER FAST FORWARD MOTION OF TC SHOULD LIMIT WIDESPREAD EXCESSIVE
RAINS...ALTHOUGH AREAS WHICH EXPERIENCE REPEAT RAINS OVER NEXT FEW
DAYS MAY BECOME VULNERABLE TO LOCAL FLOODING ALONG EVENTUAL TC
TRACK. ALL CENTRAL FLORIDA INTERESTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO STAY UP TO
DATE WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS CONCERNING THIS POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS THREAT.



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