| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 03:18 PM |
Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
|
Quote:
At this point, it seems that anything is possible. The tracking for this storm is just too erratic. I was in the school of thought yesterday that believed it was going to track further north before it was all over. Then, the GFDL, GFC and BAMM went whacky, and the NHC revised its track back to landfall south of Naples (such as existed 24 hours before).
It would not surprise me if it ended up coming in at Punta Gorda/Venice/Sarasota, and following a Charley track.
Sharpe
Actually, if you look at the wv imagery through the http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html channel, you can see a wind maxim coming out of TX into the lower Mississippi Valley... In concert with said ridge erosion is what I believe is inducing the turn from WNW to NW - per the intermediate advisory... More over, and this is subjective opinion from me, I believe that Wilma is at least in the last 2 hours moving almost NW by NNW.. (Used the edge of a piece of paper technique)... Anyway, I'm starting to hunch that this may pull a fast one on the 12z guidance and never come onshore the Yucatan - might get pretty darn close...
I'm also wondering if the 12z guidance isn't strong enough with the vort max coming into the middle Miss. Valley area in general..