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It should be noted that the 12Z GFS shows a NW or even NNW motion from now until late tonight, but then turns Wilma back to the west and stalls it after that, so the increased northerly component that seems to be underway is not necessarily inconsistent with the model solutions of a slowdown or stall of Wilma over the Yucutan. It seems increasingly likely that the steering currents will signficantly weaken in 12-24 hours... exactly how far west Wilma has gotten by that time, and whether it acutally stalls or simply drifts along somewhere after that, will determine how much of a landfall this make over the Yucutan. The models have been consistent with one thing... the further east Wilma is, the sooner it will get picked up, but the models have not been consistent about how far west Wilma will get.

(reposted from old thread)

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Yeah, that's all certainly valid... I wasn't really commenting in deference to accuracy regarding "guidance track" - per say.. (though it may sound that way )

The point was that if the models are perhaps too weak with the mid-lvl disturbance in the heart land, then maybe this initial pull N is under-estimated. So...basically, we're in agreement, although I am beginning to want to correct track guidance slightly right now that we are on the topic.