| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 03:33 PM |
Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
|
Quote:
It is moving 5mph it is hardly moving.If the spped does not pick up its only going to go 100 miles in the next day.The NHC forcast is for this thing to go slow NOT stop but crawl which it seems to be doing.The north motion is expected and if it still goes only 5mph it has lots of time to catch the NE track when it gets to 20o if you look at the model runs it does not stall out till 20o so has time to go before the stall anyway.
Yes, well, let's hope NHC's forecast is correct then!
...It's just a hunch, but I'm wondering if this won't be going like...almost due N by midnight at perhaps a slightly greater speed...
I'm basing this on physical observation alone - which can be misleading sometimes I admit... Basically, to re-iterate...
- I believe there is a wind maxim punching east from TX to the lower Mississippi Valley.
- Ridge erosion is observed over the SE U.S.
- Cirrus canopy is beginning to be pulled much more concertedly N and NE along the SE Gulf of Mexico, which be an indication of 1 and/or 2 things: 1) Shear is about to increase in the area; 2) Steering field may becoming established.
Granted, the short term N component is said to be predicted - that's fine - but my contention based on these physical observations is simply ....."to what degree correction is that N motion being assumed?"
that's all..