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The forecast track hasn't changed a whole lot, but if you read the discussion, it is apparent that the confidence in the forecast track has dropped quite a bit. The shortwave that is currently pulling Wilma to the north is forecast to weaken and move east. As that occurs, steering currents will temporarily weaken and then it is a matter of where Wilma decides to drift until the next shortwave tries to drag it north. NHC indicates that the slower models are indicating that it won't be until the third shortwave before Wilma gets picked up. It will be a close call. |