if i had to put money, i'd just keep wilma's strength near steady state as it nears the ne yucatan.. and slowly weakening while it's close (more if it stops while onshore a la isidore). fragments of that old inner eyewall are still sweeping around, and there is some light westerly shear becoming apparent on the western fringe of the storm. that has to be advecting some dry air into the system. i'd just keep it a 4 for the near term... large eye systems like this don't spin up quickly.. and the parameters for strengthening aren't ideal (proximity to land, upper air). were the eye to contract some that might change...
i'm gonna hold to earlier ideas about landfall in southwest florida and proximity to the northeast down the road, but it's apparent that the first shortwave will miss the storm and that the second will only have enough to initiate a slow north then northeast movement. as a third plunges southward over the upper misssippi valley around sunday the storm should respond by accelerating towards florida. the ridging off the east coast is probably a little underdone... wilma is pumping it up some, along with some rebound via the upper low over the canadian maritimes finally pulling away east. the amplification looks a little undone, i'm thinking. add to that the the 18z gfs runs are showing phasing at the 500mb level but keeping the surface wilma offshore. this is probably wrong and i'm betting the trajectory will be such that the storm sideswipes the coast really hard as it becomes extratropical. not going to withdraw from this solution unless the storm beats itself apart on mexico, or the projected coastal low of the weekend really blows up and drags the 500mb trough axis further east than projected.
gfs has been consistently showing a caribbean system for the last few days for the time period now 6-10 days out. it never does more than become a depression-level low on the model runs, even though the upper environment looks very conducive. recent runs have been keeping a pretty static pattern, with a trough over the east and a subtropical ridge along 20-25n in the central part of the atlantic. the system itself has migrated from wave energy collecting in the western caribbean to an eastern caribbean system that develops earlier, and sort of washes out over the larger islands. i'm not convinced this is quite right yet, but do expect something to try to be there in about 7 days.
the wave near 55w may be undergoing southerly shear, but it looks better than the nhc is giving it credit for. there seems to be a good wind shift line, persistent convection, and a marginal environment aloft. models are showing slightly more ridging over the area as the outflow jet east of wilma reorients to a more poleward, less radial flow. i'm not entirely unconvinced it won't look better tomorrow, but the chances are still on the slim side.
HF 2303z20october