It's all going to depend on where it hits the Yucatan. If it brushes the coast, it won't be able to weaken as much. If it crosses the tip of the peninsula, then we will have a much weaker storm ... especially if it just hangs out there for 40 hours (not quite buying into that scenario just yet.)
The second scenario is this: *if* it doesn't interact with land at all and keeps going on a N/NW track, that will allow it to get further north. Here is the key question: how MUCH further north ? It's definitely going to get picked up by another trough but when and where is the key to this whole forecast.
On a personal note, I am beginning to feel the "burn-out" with this storm...already. None of the models really have a good handle on it after it passes over/through the Yucatan Channel or peninsula, so it just leaves us all living in a state of limbo.
We can do nothing other than to sit it out and wait. I found myself getting very irritable and antsy today. So I've decided that in order to keep whatever single cell of sanity I have left, I will check in about every 2-3 hours instead of every 2-3 minutes, LOL! It has helped a lot and you can actually see more of what's going on ... if you are getting to the point where you are so frustrated, may I suggest that you forget about the storm for a few hours and do something you enjoy.
Like, say, get some sleep!