I tend to agree with Danielw

While I think the general consensus tracking is most likely accurate, which means a direct run over my home, I only question the timeline, which seems conservative.

In watching all of this, I think it may only brush the Yucatan and get picked up, even if ever so slightly, and begin making its way eastward.

I think the size, intensity, speed to intensity, radical pressure changes and a few other factors have kind of put the timing question in the models in a bit of chaos. There is no previous input of a storm like this, so it is difficult for the models to calculate...never seen it before...never done it before.

By no means do I consider myself an expert, just a lot of observation