| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 01:35 AM |
Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
|
Quote:Quote:
Have ya'll seen the 18 GFDL? It has the storm at 25 N in 120 hours! I have not seen it on a map and quite frankly I'm too tired to plot the coords but I'm thinking this is one crazy steered storm. Maybe FL will never see it. Let's hope anyway!
Here's the link for those who don't have it,
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/gfdl.txt
25N 81.9W (the 120hr position on GFDL) is just NW of Key West. 27.1N 80.6W six hours later is on shore west of Palm Beach. Incredible.
ETA: 2345z IR image has the makings of a nice distinct eye. It's not quite there yet, but it looks much more impressive than 2315z image.
For what it's worth:
00:15z position: 19.3N ; 85.8W
18z GFDL at 0z: 18.9N; 86.1W ...or, bias of -.4 S and +.3 W.
That calculates to about 31naut miles SSW of the actual position at 00z, which, may not seem like much but 31naut miles has a way of meaning something down the road.
Having said that, using the edge of a piece of paper and the degrees, Wilma appeas as though "IF" she maintained the current path her W eyewall would graze the Island and she'd cross the very NE tip of the Yucatan.