typhoon_tip
(Meteorologist)
Thu Oct 20 2005 10:04 PM
Re: Wilma Moving Northwest

00:15z position: 19.3N ; 85.8W
18z GFDL at 0z: 18.9N ; 86.1W ...for a bias of -.4 S and +.3 W.

That calculates to about 31naut miles SSW of the actual position at 00z; which, may not seem like much now but 31naut miles has a way of meaning something more meaningful down the road.

It also calculates to a heading of ~345degrees.
Wilma appears as though "IF" she maintained the current path her W eyewall would graze the Island and she'd cross the very NE tip of the Yucatan - that is, taking a 345 heading and super-imposing it on the lat/lon grid. And also, this concurs by using the edge of paper method and laying on your monitor...


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