| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 10:33 PM |
Re: just a little bit confused
|
Quote:
I have heard people say, here on this site, over and over again, that a big storm cannot turn on a dime. That makes sense. Language may be my forte, but basic physics is learned quickly by those of us who are very clumsy
Why is it that almost all of the models have Wilma making some sort of VERY sharp turn, wheter over land or over water? I suspect that I have not read the most recent data, but I have been curious about that as I have seen it happening all day.
How can a computer model generate such a sharp turn when a sharp turn just seems physically impossible?
The reason they do this isn't a contradiction if you undertand the storm structure... The models are averaging together to a position 'over land' on the Yucatan for a considerable length of time, enough to induce substantial weakening.. Should that take place, it is thus more susceptible to subtler influences in the steering field more readily as they incur. But... there is some short term analysis now that suggests that the models, particularly the GFDL (I simply haven't analyzed for the others yet) is demonstrating a W bias at the 6 hour interval off the 18z (2pm) run.
which fair enough to say, means that it may not be correct about the landfall, or any length of time thereafter...