danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Fri Oct 21 2005 06:21 AM
Re: 5 a.m.

Excuse me for stepping back in.

Apparently something or someone has the notion that part of the Florida Peninsula is No Longer In Any Danger.

I consulted the 5 Day Forecast Track Map, from the National Hurricane Center to see what everyone was talking about.

The only thing I see that has changed is the Timing of When Some Part of the Florida Peninsula has a Landfalling Hurricane.

Since the Cone of certainty extends from the Northern Yucatan Peninsula, across All of the Florida Peninsula, to the DelMarVa Peninsula and the Eastern Tip of Long Island, NY.
I would tend to think that there are a lot of anxious people just waiting to get in or on some form of transportation and Leave.

Forecaster Avila summed it up Very Nicely in his last paragraph of the 5 AM Discussion. I'll repost that paragraph here.

HAVING SAID ALL THAT...THERE IS PRACTICALLY NO CHANGE FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY WITH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST BE MORE UNCERTAIN
THAN USUAL.

FORECASTER AVILA


And the Tampa NWS Office has added "West Central Florida" to the header of their Area Forecast Discussion.

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
355 AM EDT FRI OCT 21 2005

...ALL INTERESTS IN WEST CENTRAL AND SW FLORIDA NEED TO CONTINUE TO
CLOSELY MONITOR HURRICANE WILMA...


They actually added " West Central Florida" to the text...24 hours ago.

We've been handed a grace period, if you will, to better prepare for a Hurricane. Please take this extra time and make Sure that You are ready to Leave. When ordered, asked or recommended to do so.

Once the wind speeds increase above 45 mph, Most, if not ALL Emergency Personnel will NOT Respond to your call for assistance. In some areas the wind speed cut off for Response may be 55 mph. But don't plan on that. Trees and powerlines can alter any of the Response Plans.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


And Emergency Management Agencies.~danielw



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