The 0945z water vapor image shows some decay in the NW quadrant due to land interactions. The south quadrant, however, is more impressive. Cozumel radar shows the eye probably passing through the western edge of the Yucatan channel - not making landfall in my opinion. This small difference in motion could be HUGE... because it will mean Wilma won't weaken as much due to land interactions as if it made landfall. It doesn't mean Cancun and Cozumel won't be impacted. I believe they'll get the western eyewall, but not the break in conditions that the eye would bring.

Beyond 24 hours this thing is just unpredictable. I just looked again at the plots of the forecast... by Sunday... it is forecast to be moving so rapidly that it will make it all the way up to... due north of Cancun by it looks like 50 miles maybe. It's now SE of Cozumel. I don't know exactly but that looks like maybe 100 miles of movement in 2 days.

When - even if - it turns to the east... remains to be seen. If I were on the west coast of the peninsula... I wouldn't feel out of the woods, no matter where I was.