| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 08:13 AM |
Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
|
Quote:
There is very clear dry air entrainment on the west side of the system now just outside the eye. I would be very surprised if the eye is not open west. This storm has probably peaked. Between interaction with land and the dry air now moving into the eyewall, I doubt we will see any strengthening before landfall or near miss.
WV loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html
Well, considering that the storm is already starting to weaken - down to 145 at the 8am advisory - I think it's a safe bet to say we won't see strengthening before the greatest approach to the Yucatan coastline. The west eyewall appears to have dissintegrated in the last couple of hours as Wilma approached Cozumel. It will likely continue to weaken as the eye moves just east of the island and heads up toward Cancun. Current movement would put the center of the eye JUST east of Cancun - which would put a large portion of the eye over land and cause weakening i think. I expect we'll see around 130mph winds by the 2pm ET intermediate aadvisory. Having said that, the eye is completely cleared out now... so if it turns a bit further north and manages to stay offshore completely, it likely won't change in intensity. When it clears into the GOM... I don't see the shear that is supposed to be there...
It's going to be an interesting day to watch from afar. Hopefully the folks in Cancun and Cozumel are safe.