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I think it's likely that is the beginning of an ERC, although it will take some time before it manifests. If I remember from Katrina, land can interrupt these quite nicely leading towards a highly disorganized storm. Perhaps the models showing it dissipating and never regaining a core aren't out to lunch afterall? I have to throw in that I do not believe Wilma can stall for the next day or two. It's likely she'll continue her brush with the Yucatan and may make it as high as Cat 5 before entering the GOM and more-hostile conditions. If you're on the West coast of Florida, it doesn't hurt to be prepared. I'm not saying rush out, board up and leave now - what I am saying is get your tools ready to board (you can always put them back), get supplies ready to leave (you can always pack them in short order), and monitor your local emergency management broadcasts for any evacuation orders. There's a range of Cat 4 to TS at landfall from North of Tampa down to the everglades. It will not get any more specific until Wilma enters the GOM and starts the march towards us at increased forward speed. |