Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Fri Oct 21 2005 05:03 PM
Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula

12Z GFS still indicates the stall scenario. That is not a good model for intensity, so I would take its reintensification of Wilma after 48 hours over land with a grain of salt. The inner-core of Wilma would likely be permanently destroyed if it spent that much time over land. The 12Z CMC shows Wilma slowing down on or just off the northern coast of the Yucatan, a scenario that would not produce as much weakening as the 12Z GFS.

Wilma looks like your garden variety cat 4 hurricane, if there is such a thing. A large and very well-defined eye on satellite, but the convection is rather warm and not quite symmetrical, so no indication that it is deepening that much.

Regarding 99L, they did a test SHIPS run at 12Z on it and the results suggested only marginal intensification at best. The initial track output suggested movement towards the Bahamas through 72 hours, but then recurvature into the Atlantic.

Edit: NOGAPS keeps Wilma over the Yucatan for about 36 hours, which would also result in signficant weakening.



Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center