Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Fri Oct 21 2005 01:45 PM
Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula

I see what you're seeing also. If you look very closely, that area around TX/LA looked to have been moving southward, but now looks like it's pulling a little north and taking Wilma with it. In the last few frames, it does not appear to be moving as much west as it is north. Also, it looks like there is another trough/ULL coming in from the west that may also pull Wilma northward.
I know it's so frustrating at this point and we all want to know where it's going....as someone from Ft. Myers said to TWC's on-cam met, "It's agony...it's like hating going to the dentist but knowing that sooner or later you'll have to and you just want to get it over with."
I am having serious doubts that Wilma is going to stall out for 36 hours before moving into the Gulf of Mexico. I also think that Cancun is going to just get brushed by Wilma, maybe riding the coast, but I do not think it will go across the peninsula and weaken significantly. Of course, that's only based on what I am seeing now, things could change. I just think that the area building back into the GOM is going to help keep her further east than previously thought. I don't think the first cold front will catch her, but I believe the 2nd one will and she may be further north then forecasted when she turns north.
Of course, take all of this with a grain of salt. It's just my opinion, based on what my eyes see and I could be completely off based. At this point, all of our forecasts have at least a 50-75% of being correct.



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