Since the GFDL has come up in the discussion.
All of the following assumption, ideas are based on the 18Z GFDL Model alone.

Notice two things about the 18Z run.
116kts prior to landfall and 104-106 after passing over the Peninsula.

This mean a CAT 2-3 over the Peninsula.
The last run of the GFDL indicates...AT THAT TIME, the Eye would pass NORTH of Lake Okeechobee.

This would be very similar to the Charley-'04 track but at not such a steep angle. This forecast track would place the Center off of the East FL Coast between Melbourne and Ft Pierce.

Now that's based on the 18Z GFDL Model. 50/ 50 chance of that track.~danielw