Boy, I know its only one model run, but the 18Z GFDL is scary for Sarasota County residents. A CAT 3 storm with 120 mph winds smashing into Venice in 66-72 hrs. I don't like the trend in the models shifting north. It started with the GFS on yesterdays runs and continues today. The NOGAPS has been on and off shifting its track between Tampa and Ft Myers. It looks as though the new models are picking up on a slightly more amplified trough which would move Wilma more NE rather than E-NE. If I look where Wilma has traveled the last 6 hours and where she is likely to go, the new GFDL seems to have it pretty close, with just a short run over the NE tip of the YP. All I've heard from the local TV METs and CNN too is that this storm is gonna weaken considerably over the YUC and only be a CAT 1 by the time it gets to FL. Right now, that doesn't look to pan out. There could be surprised people in Tampa tomorrow if the models and Wilma trend even slightly more northward.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.c...;hour=Animation