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Dr. Steve Lyons at 4:00 PM had this storm over the peninsula of Mexico for an amazing 36 hours and all but reaching south Florida as a cat 1 at best.

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and so did the NHC.

Weather changes constantly, and they give their best report of what they see at that time, which is why the reports update several times a day.


PS - the NHC called the East Texas landfall at 10AM CDT Thursday the 22nd....1 1/2 days before landfall.
link

but they called a "Houston area" landfall a few 5 days head of time.
link 2

but of course, you're focusing on the cone and not the line......right????