danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sat Oct 22 2005 07:05 AM
Models??

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
132 AM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005
VALID OCT 22/0000 UTC THRU OCT 25/1200 UTC
(edited~danielw)

..HURCN WILMA
THE NAM AND GFS ARE OVER 50 MB TOO WEAK WITH THE CNTR. THE NAM AND GFS WILL BE WEAK WITH THE FORECAST INTENSITY AS A RESULT. THE NAM IS OVER A QRTR INCH TOO DRY WITH THE PW AT MZBZ...TO THE S OF WILMA. THE NAM IS ALSO OVER A QRTR INCH TOO DRY WITH THE PW AT XMR IN CNTRL FL.

..HURCN WILMA
THE 00Z NAM IS DEEPER AND MORE NLY THAN THE 12Z NAM WITH WILMA OVER THE YUCATAN. ON DAYS 2-3...THE NAM TRENDS MORE NELY AND DEEPER WITH WILMA. THE 00Z GFS IS CONSIDERABLY FASTER CARRYING WILMA INTO THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ERN CONUS TROF...RACING HER OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...COMPARED TO THE 12Z GFS. THIS IS DUE TO THE FASTER/DEEPER TREND WITH THE ERN CONUS TROF BY DAY 2. THE GFS IS ALSO TRENDING DEEPER WITH WILMA.

MODEL DIFFERENCES AND PREFERENCES..
..HURCN WILMA
THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK FOR WILMA IS CLOSER TO THE CAN GLOB AND UKMET TRACK THAN THE FASTER GFS OR SLOWER/MORE SLY NAM. THE CAN GLOB AND UKMET ARE PREFERRED WITH THE ERN CONUS TROF STEERING WILMA BY MID PD.


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