danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sat Oct 22 2005 07:16 AM
2AM EDT Tropical Wx Discussion Excerpts

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005
(edited~danielw)

WILMA MADE A SECOND LANDFALL AROUND 11 PM EDT NEAR PLAYA DEL CARMEN MEXICO AND SINCE THEN THE EYE HAS FILLED WITH THE DIAMETER SHRINKING FROM 20 NM TO AN IRREGULAR 5-10 NM.

THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF WILMA HAS RESULTED IN A PROFUSE AMOUNT OF RAIN ALONG THE YUCATAN COAST...AND AN AUTOMATED STATION ON ISLA MUJERES...JUST E OF CANCUN...HAS REPORTED ABOUT 16" OF RAIN OVER THE PAST 24 HRS.

A MEXICAN NAVY AUTOMATIC STATION LOCATED IN
ISLA MUJERES HAS BEEN REPORTING WIND GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE
DURING THE PAST 10 TO 12 HOURS WITH A MAXIMUM WIND GUST TO 108
MPH...173 KM/HR. (from the Hur. Wilma 1 AM CDT Adv #27A)

***************************************************
EAST CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W S OF 20N MOVING W 15 KT WITH A 1009 MB LOW ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 15N65W...OR ABOUT 225 NM SSE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HRS IF THE CONVECTION CAN CONSOLIDATE NEAR THE LOW CENTER. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NWWD ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND WILL SPREAD HEAVY RAINS OVER THE ISLAND BEGINNING LATER TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST SUN NIGHT.

Full text available here, and on Main Page of flhurricane.com
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/220000.shtml?



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