THE
STATION LOCATED IN ISLA MUJERES LOCATED OFFSHORE NEAR THE NORTHEATERN TIP OF YUCATAN HAS BEEN MEASURING MAXIMUM WINDS AROUND 90 KNOTS FOR MORE THAN 9 HOURS. LATEST MAXIMUM WIND AT 06Z WAS 88
KNOTS. BECAUSE THE EYE IS INLAND THE HURRICANE HAS WEAKENED AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 110 KNOTS.

THE FORECAST INTENSITY OF WILMA WHILE CROSSING FLORIDA IS A BLEND BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODELS WHICH KEEP AN INTENSE
HURRICANE WITH 100 TO 115 KNOTS AND THE SHIPS MODEL THAT RAPIDLY WEAKENS THE CYCLONE.

THE INTENSITY OF WILMA WHILE CROSSING FLORIDA IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND THE BEST ESTIMATE IS THAT IT WILL LIKELY BE A CATEGORY ONE OR TWO AT LANDFALL.
WILMA'S WIND FIELD WILL PROBABLY EXPAND AS IT CROSSES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

THEREFORE...THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY COVER A LARGE AREA.

BASED ON THE TRACK FORECAST AND THE LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH WILMA...A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA AND
THE FLORIDA KEYS.

FORECASTER AVILA