danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sat Oct 22 2005 06:29 AM
Track and Watches

I was just about to post a preliminary heads up for the Tropical Storm Watch and Hurricane Watch areas.

I have TWC on, but I haven't paid much attention to them as I use the NHC products.

The 4 AM CDT 3 Day Track Forecast is for a tentative Landfall near Marcos Island.
Wilma should then, based on the 4 AM Map, track ENE passing just South of Lake Okeechobee, and exit the Peninsula near Ft Pierce.
All of this is based on the 4 AM CDT 3 Day Track Map.

I just saw what you were refering to.
TWC's track map ONLY extends as far North as the Southern side of Tampa Bay. This is INCORRECT.

The 4AM CDT NHC Cone map, Covers the West FL Coast, from the Yankeetown/ Bayport Area, all the way around to near St Augustine on the East FL Coast.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/084606.shtml?3day?large
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gifs/break_seUS.gif

My thoughts on the Tropical Storm Watch are from Longboat Key to Dry Tortugas.
NHC may bypass the Trop Storm Watch and go straight to a Hurricane Watch for the above named area.
Normal Procedures would be:
Tropical Storm Watch 36 hours ahead of 39mph or higher winds.
Trop. Storm Warning-24 hrs or less ahead of winds 39mph or higher.
Hurricane Watch-36 hours ahead of 74mph or higher winds.
Hurricane Warning-24hrs or less ahead of 74mph or greater winds.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml



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