I've noticed the same thing. Several of the variables point to Tampa, and at times the LBAR isnt alone in its conclusions. Historically October storms come ashore between...say...Cedar Key and Naples. So LBAR is definitely in the ball park. If you watch NHC over the years they tend to pick the path in the middle of the model cluster. And the storms generally stray at the last minute. I suspect, too, that something else is at work here...something unsaid. Last year NHC had CHARLEY making a direct hit on Tampa. Many people fled to Orlando. Guess what? The storm went through Orlando. Many of us were annoyed with NHC. Me, because my pregnant daughter spent the night in a closet right beneath where the eye went across. Me, because another daughter and grandchildren left Tampa and went to Bartow where they ran into the storm. Being an old fool, I stayed home...because the storms always go someplace else. But WILMA makes me nervous. What I fear is NHC getting it wrong (again) and the local clowns waiting too long to evacuate people. I have to testify in a trial on Monday, and I cant get a straight answer out of anyone if the courthouse will be open. It wont be pretty if WILMA turns to the north.