Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Sat Oct 22 2005 12:09 PM
Re: NHC 11 am Discussion

One key factor regarding how much Wilma may try to reintenisfy is how well the inner eyewall feature holds up. There is a large outer eyewall evident on the radar which still seems to be in prety good shape, while the inner eyewall seems to have contracted and may struggle to maintain itself for very long. If the inner wind core maintains itself as it emerges over water, it may try to increase more rapidly (though an ERC would probably ensue shortly after that given the outer eyewall). If all that is left is the large outer eyewall when it emerges offshore, the storm would less prone to rapid intensity changes.

I recall the "No-Name" event of 1993 very well... it is now a famous case study for meteorologists. There wasn't anything tropical about that at all... it was basically a mid-latitude baroclinic system on steroids. This scenario will be different. There definitely could be an enhanced risk of tornados with this system, but the details are still unclear on exactly where and when (forecasting hurricanes is a piece of cake compared to forecasting the probability of tornados 3 days out). A lot depends on how strong the system is when approaching Florida and whether it is still generating outer bands or not.



Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center