this evening a dry slot has punched out the southwestern cdo of wilma. the storm has what appear to be three wind maxima as well. historically systems that get addled by land this much have a tough time getting their inner cores together. earlier this season dennis and emily did it during the 24-36 hours after moving back offshore from first landfalls of about the same duration, but that was for july systems not moving into a marginal shear environment. ssts were also warmer. i'd say it's fairly safe to say that wilma won't bomb down to 940mb overnight. the pressure is actually slowly rising as the last effects of land continue to weaken the core... that should end in the next few hours. with the multiple wind maxima configuration, getting the storm to tighten back up may not happen.. if it does it shouldn't start until tomorrow day. the upper air configuration will allow for reintensification; 3 as the official says is likely, and a 4 is possible if wilma were to markedly improve. i'd say the 2/3 landfall prediction for the nhc is most reasonable.. it's the same range i was 2-3 days ago and that'll work. personally i'd look for 945-955mb. gonna keep it pegged on fort myers, especially since later guidance has crept up north of there. after florida some of the modeling continues to phase the storm into a powerful hybrid gale that is intermittently shown to crash into cape cod/maine. the consensus is still offshore.. but i'm sure that the local weather offices up there have been talking around about the possibility that keeps haunting them and things will be ready to roll if watches start popping up there in a couple of days. they're getting an early noreaster type storm about now, and i'm sure that the soaking they got earlier this month still has the hydrology up there in overdrive.
think the nhc jumped the gun with alpha, to be honest. they'll often get a 2.5 and wait another advisory cycle for persistence or for a plane to recon it. the ship report they were referencing in the disco wasn't conclusive evidence. been watching it on san juan longe range radar and it isn't the most impressive system (unless they're getting radar velocities that support t.s. winds). i really wish they'd be consistent, because a system with similar to sometimes better structure in the pacific last week remained a depression.
HF 0011z23october