Remember that the storm will cross the state in a NE fashion, so for the East coast counties NE of Sarasota to have warnings is not an anomoly. It is to be expected.

As for the NE turn leading towards a further south track. In theory, perhaps, but the reality is that there are so many variables in play here that the early turn alone is not cause to expect the models to suddenly point back towards points south.

As others have said, the reason the NHC hasn't really expanded or changed their track is simple: until she left the Yucatan, there was really no way to have confidence in a forecast. Now that she's leaving the Yucatan, everything needed to get better solutions is going to be coming into play. By the 5pm tomorrow, they should have landfall pegged within 20 miles... maybe.