| Genesis |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Oct 22 2005 10:57 PM |
|
Re: Tropical Storm Alpha Forms in the Eastern Caribbean. Hurricane Watches Up For Florida
|
Quote:
With all the concentration on Florida, let me draw you toward something else the GFDL series of models has been consistently showing over the last several runs: a left hook into New England toward the middle of the week. Landfall for Wilma could be anywhere between Conneticut and Newfoundland, with the time-average of the models concentrating on Maine. Additionally, the attached GFDL intensity guidence indicates that hurricane force winds, possible as high as Category 2, may effect parts of New England.
Now you may continue with your obsessive-compulsive "where is it going to hit in Florida" discussion
I brought this up a few days ago, and I know the GFDL is still showing this.
The GFDL is also showing tropical-storm force winds or better over essentially the ENTIRE state of Florida - including the Panhandle - at one time or another associated with Wilma's passage, extending up the entire eastern seaboard as Wilma tracks NE. It also appears to show a clean miss on the surface front that is currently over Tampa extending up northward towards the NE US, with the storm instead riding up the trough behind it that is diving down from S. Dakoka (clearly visible on the WV.)
Its an interesting possibility. BTW, the GFDL looks to bring the storm itself in south of Naples with the Cat 1 windfield extending roughly to Sarasota on the north side. It also shows incredible baroclinic effects as Wilma accelerates off the east coast, including a small burst of Cat 4 winds when the storm is off Virginia. Fortunately, only fish (and any shipping interests unfortunate enough to be there at that time) would be affected by that.
A couple of days ago I was very concerned about this possibility and was posting that the "big story" on Wilma might not even BE in Florida, but rather further up the east coast. The first trough "miss" seemed to make this much less likely. But.... the GFDL continues to insist on it, and keeps finding an atmospheric structure that will cause it.
Looking at the Marine WX the hurricane watch officially extends to Longboat Key. This is north of Sarasota by about as far as it is south of the mouth of Tampa Bay. (I have a good friend who lives in Longboat Key - neither he or I want to see Wilma served upon him...... trust me on that.)
I remain concerned by the expected relatively rapid motion. Looking at the GFDL again it is prognosticating an impact in 30 hours from roughly now.... that's not much time if this storm takes "dead aim" on you, no matter where it goes......
Please stay alert folks.....