Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sun Oct 23 2005 03:54 AM
Re: Eye

It is not likely that the inner eyewall will reform because of the dry air already between the two eyewalls, even with the inner eye developing convection. What is more likely to happen is that the ragged inner eyewall will expand instead of reforming, and pieces of it will be absorbed into the outer eyewall, which will have been decreasing as well (already went from 70 to 60nm).

Notice that the SW corner of the outer eyewall is still not off the coast. For the past 3-4 hours she's hardly moved at all, and the longer she takes to get to the loop current, the further along the ERC will be. There are a lot of other factors for intensity, but the timing will be critical in either helping her to strengthen rapidly, or to keep her from strengthening much, and all this will occur not too many hours away from landfall.

I wanted to add that recon shows the pressure is dropping and the temp diff is increasing, so she's turned the corner so to speak, and has started reintensifying. It looks like she's been making headway against the dry air as well in the past couple hours, because the entire windfield has had a significant rise in moisture (on the wv loop, see the blue area grow).



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