Sun Oct 23 2005 09:37 PM
Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

...Wilma has spent the day traversing over top a local heat content maxim as notable by: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/work/HHP/NEW/2005295go.jpg ....a region indirectly associated with the well-discussed loop. There is a lag-time for response, even in the highly coupled boundary-layer/SS environment of the TC model... Wilma is no exception and we are tending to see colder ct explosions and a weak attempt at a better defined CDO as we type, which will likely continue while she avails of the additional heat injection...

It is not unthinkable that Wilma could go through a 3 hour period of more rapid intensification; we may be on the threshold of seeing that happened this evening. She has little room to spare and I think cat-3 is easy from here on out... Just my opinion. She is also got an awesome outflow channel established NNE, which may also be keyed into the westerlies veering into a front entrance jet structure just N of a stationary boundary in the area... This could all presage a rapid transition scenario just off the SE Coast. Once she gets over land and the western ends of the boundary should start crashing into her backside... rasping in cooler and drier continental air... This will almost immediately establish cold frontogensis because at that time she will be intertwining, rather complexly, with the jet structure associated with a very powerful U/A low settling into the Ohio Valley and will have differential thermal advection in her southern flanks... (1st signal to transition is the establishment of baroclinic boundaries and most models also show mid- tropospheric warm frontal genisis extending out into the open Atlantic as Wilm climbs in latitude, as well)

If you are in Eastern New England, you'd better have contingency plans if you are prone to marine attacks...Just in case... Hurricane Bob did a billion in damage to marine interests along and this "could" conceivable be almost as costly because it will have a much greater areal assault of less winds. We currently have high wind watches established for eastern coastal Massachusetts... 970mb hybrid bomb is crashing NNE up underneath a 1034mb high in Quebec... Umm... Do the math. If the absolute phased scenario pans out and an extratropical low is born of Wilmas potential energy, could be a real press maker. One saving factor is that we are at the astro-low side of the tide cycle...But, with 70mph (potential) sustained NE winds and extremely low bp we are likely going to have at least a 3 to 4 foot storm surge...Tides are slated in the 8.9 foot (mean) during the high tide Tuesday and that could be trouble with 20foot breakers are crashing to shore..

If that were not enough, there are deeper convective elements popping in the vicinity of Alpha as it is moving off the N Coast of Hispanola, over SSTs that are still warm enough for TC, under an upper level anticyclone that is transiently located over the eastern Bahamas... Fairly obvious curved banding suggests that NHC allusion to regeneration may be afoot... This system is modeled to recurve but I have issues with that taking place. The Nor'easter over night is fast escaping and there'll be a natural rebound in the ridge tendencies in it's wake; meanwhile, the U/A low and trough in the Ohio Valley is in the process of taking on deeper meridianal extent, which "should" mean heights out in the Atlantic would teleconnect higher... The combination of these feed-backs would tend to a model solution closer to the 12z GFDL than those provided by the 18z run... Not sure why it reverted back to the 06z-like pathways in the models et al for that matter, because the 12z made for a better intuitive fit... Actually, for New England's sake, they'd probably better hope the ridge hypothesis above doesn't work out and Alpha recurves and doesn't get caught up in the fruckus of Wilma's rage. It just seems to me that this plot could all get very hairy in a hurry if Alpha explosively regenerates and takes bee-line at Long Island during the next 24 hours, because the models and man, neither would have really seen that coming - or at least I suspect that to this point, that "outside" possibility hasn't really been talked about... But imagine that...having a tropical storm slam in with almost no warning and then have to deal with a transitioning Nor'easter with warm core characteristics... It would be truly rare..

Update 1: Also, not to be insensitive because yes INDEED...I should be focussed on Florida concerns first in deference to urgencies..
Update 2: Judging by recent IR frames I am inclined to think that indeed....a rapid intensification is underway...

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