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There has been a fairly significant improvement in the satellite presentation of Wilma in the last couple of hours. The eye is showing up much better on the most recent image (2315Z) and there is deepening convection around the center. On the long-range Key West radar, the eye looks to be a little irregularly shaped, but that may be an artifact since the west eyewall is just barely in radar range.
absolutely...there is definitely an attenuation issue....BUT, what i'm wondering is why this still looks like it's got so much east component - don't think attenuation actually causes storm motion issues...
anyway...i agree with the intensity profiling you've made... i wrote a post awhile back regarding what i suspect might be a narrow window for rapid or near rapid intensification rates.. furthering those points:
a) storm relative shear is quite low now that she is moving along quickly and this will allow her to avail of a in situ lighter u/a
b) she's making use of having traversed the some pretty dern warm heat content during the day
c) ...finally, the enterance region of u/a wind maxim is beginning to excite her polarward outflow channel, which should give her some core ascending assisting for a short time.
I generally agree with your analysis, though Wilma still has some issues to deal with before that happens. Can the eye clear out (still some stubborn old eyewall fragments around the center) and can the eye contract enough to allow for a more rapid deepening? I guess we are about to find out.
...i know...and the trouble is that the 'contracting eyewall' scenario is like the latter half of an erc - lose analogy because it is unclear much of this strange core appearance was for that cause to begin with... trouble with that is, there is really poor predictive skill for timing contractions and so forth... what she really needs is a burst of deep convection amid the inner aspect, to lower that pressure and drive the wind field tighter in... the 8pm advisory is coming out now so we should get a fix on pp... if we see a 5mb drop we can bet that contraction is either underway or about to begin.
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Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida