DrMos
(Registered User)
Mon Oct 24 2005 12:57 AM
Re: Extrapolated Track

Based on the 2pm vs. 8pm changes coordinates, it appears Wilma is gaining 0.8 degrees of latitude for every 0.9 degrees of longitude. Going by the 5pm vs. 8pm coordinates Wilma is gaining 0.8 degrees latitude for every 1.0 degree of longitude.

Assuming the 5pm vs 8pm numbers, extrapolation from her current lat/lon of 23.9n, 84.4w would seem to bring Wilma farther north than your calculations. For example,
23.9n, 84.4w
24.7n, 83.4w
25.5n, 82.4w
25.9n, 81.9w

That would bring Wilma onshore somewhere just north of Naples. Do you agree? Moreover, if the 2pm vs. 8pm coordinate changes are used, then that brings landfall even closer to FMY, assuming extrapolation of course.


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