| JG |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 09:15 PM |
Re: Extrapolated Track
|
Quote:Quote:
I haven't looked at the NHC plots.
I came up with 25min N and 36min E over 3:30.
That would be 0.4N and 0.6E in decimals.
I use the dd mmm format from the aircraft, and convert it to decimals. Divide the minutes(mm) by 60 to get decimals.
Goes to show you what a fool's errand basing early radar fixes can turn out to be... Because now that she is firmly coming into range on: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kbyx.shtml ....I can better see a N component evolving... Oh man... IF YOU LIVE IN NAPELS OR ANYWHERE FROM TAMPA SOUTH FOR THAT MATTER, STAY ON THIS RADAR IMAGE! that's going to help you tremendously.
Particularly over the next 4 hours will be telling as to where this is going to landfall, such that you will be confident with ~7-8 hours lead time awareness... This particular type of incursion to the coast is not one that will have very abrupt changes in direction and/or distracting wobbles.
Is it my imagination or does the southern part of the eyewall look like it's trying to close off, north of the current track. If you look at this map, it does appear a more northern trend was starting this afternoon.
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/vortex1.gif