typhoon_tip
(Meteorologist)
Mon Oct 24 2005 01:36 AM
Re: Extrapolated Track

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Exactly.... I've been trying to hammer this point, that she will be less adversely touched by these detriments because she is caught up in an in situ environment that is moving along with her - that is by definition storm relative shear, which in this case is exceptionally low in value... In otherwords, I see quite the alternative, pure, almost unmitigated strengthening potential right up to landfall - which is very, very ungood




A local friend who is much more knowledgable on this subject told me that the shear, if it's in the same direction the storm is moving will not affect nor deteriorate the storm alot unless it is at a super high velocity (above 30 kts I think is what he said). Is that true? Regardless, I think Wilma is going to be like Charley. Thank you for your posts and heads up on the behaviour of this storm.




Exactly - you're friend gets a gold star
Seriously, SRS - Storm Relative Shear is exactly what it sounds like... relativity... To the hurricane, the wind that is shear impactive may have the physical presents of say 5mph, which is generally not enough to inhibit strengthening. If Wilma was translating along at say...10mph, that physical presents becomes 10mph. If she were standing still, she'd be encounter all of the environmental wind field's capacity to impinge on her vertical structure, or 20mph... (I'm not saying the envir. field is 20mph - just a facsimile)... Anyway, her storm relative shear is quite low when she's already 15 or 16mph, because all the wind barbs I've seen since 00z have been about 18kts... after conversion, she's in for what...6mph of shear... Nah, not gonna touch her.



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