typhoon_tip
(Meteorologist)
Mon Oct 24 2005 01:51 AM
Re: Extrapolated Track

Quote:

typhoon_tip you've been a huge help. Makes me wish that I was good at math so I could have been a met.

Well, let's hope the tornadoes let me get some sleep tonight. My weather radio is wearing me out. Recon seems to indicate the 2300 update will call for a Cat 3. I wonder, based on your discussion with me in these recent posts, if she has enough time to get up to the 130-135 mph range before landfall.

Some folks seem to think that an 84 degree SST is not enough to support those windspeeds. What do you think?




Untrue... 84 is plenty... It depends on numerous factors... Heck, you had Vince in the eastern Atlantic over waters that were 72 I think (check that)...Anyway, point being, peculiararities about her internal structure and also how she's interacting with her environment are more inducive then any rigidity surrounding generalized SST rules.

Namely, she has an extraordinarily powerful outlfow channel established that is rocketing mass from the rim of her upper CDO to Greenland at about ludicrous speed... Sarcasm aside, it really is a potent artifice of circumstantial design...

a) She travels inside the belly of an air mass that is moving along with her, together, she and this air mass are not suffering the ill-affects of shearing erosions and dry air entrainments, because of storm relative shear, which I explained in an earlier post and am getting leary of re-writing...
b) There is a very strong U/A windfield moving into the SE U.S.; the enterance region of a strong negative anomaly (deep trough) carving out between 75 and 80W.. This wind max is moving SW-NE and has latched onto Wilma's outflow, yanking it right along and enhancing the hell out of it... That is why you see the outflow channel so strongly on her NNE polarward side..

a) + b) = c) ...Cataclysm, Catastrophy, you name it... She will have the ability to maximize for these rare combinations of well-timed parametrics. ...Not etched in stone of course, but judging by sat/rad...I think cat 3 is easy... 125 at landfall...no problem... (Early est and I retain the right to eat crow in peace! )



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