Just got back (1 1/2 hours of cat drama...she accidently got out) -- this is looking very bad for the Keys.

Trying to get a handle on what is going on. The eye is not filled in on radar, but appears to be filled in on some sat frames but not others. The most recent 85ghz scan is a partial one from around 9pm, only showing the west side, which looked pretty darn good.

From the oval appearance (mainly the convection is what is oval), it appears she is going to size down to a compact ring around the large eye. I think she is still strengthening and will take on a more donut-type appearance in the next couple hours.

Looks like the southern part of the eyewall is going to graze the Keys, and in short order they're going to get a terrific storm surge when the eyewall comes in with its SE and then E winds...but even worse, if the storm tracks dead reckoning, then they'll get an even larger subsequent surge from the NW, as the west side of the eyewall passes over. They're already showing flooding there, of course, on the order of several feet, but when the surge comes in, the water will rise rapidly, possibly as high as 15 feet, within 60 to 90 minutes. It won't even get much of a chance to recede before the second surge comes in, which may be higher.