typhoon_tip
(Meteorologist)
Mon Oct 24 2005 03:20 PM
Re: New warning?

You may find this interesting because the recent "apparent" intensity gaining has NHC scratching their heads exactly the way you and I just were! ....I guess no one knows...

THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TO UPDATE THE INITIAL AND
FORECAST INTENSITY FOR WILMA. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WSR-88D
RADAR DATA...AND FLIGHT LEVEL DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT...INDICATE WINDS AT 850 MB OF ABOUT 120-125 KT IN
THE SOUTHERN EYEWALL. SINCE THESE WINDS HAVE PERSISTED OVER THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS...IT IS PROBABLY SAFE TO NOW
ASSUME THESE WINDS CORRESPOND TO ABOUT 100 KT AT THE OCEAN SURFACE.
IT IS NOT YET CLEAR IF THIS RESTRENGTHENING WAS SIMPLY DUE TO
REDUCTION OF FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE ONCE THE EYEWALL EMERGED OVER
WATER...OR IF THE WINDS IN THE EYEWALL STRENGTHENED SOME TIME AFTER
REACHING THE ATLANTIC...PERHAPS DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE GULF
STREAM. BOTH FACTORS LIKELY PLAYED A ROLE. THE INTENSITY
FORECASTS VALID AT 12 AND 24 HOURS HAVE BEEN INCREASED A LITTLE.
NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK OR RADII FORECASTS HAVE BEEN MADE.



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