typhoon_tip
(Meteorologist)
Mon Oct 24 2005 05:05 PM
Re: New warning?

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a little stronger... she just wouldn't die!

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...29.0 N... 77.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 37 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...120 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 954 MB.




that's unusual...to have even modest strengthening while moving at 37mph of translational velocity!




The shocking thing is that there is still some anticyclonic outflow on the backside of the system as it is getting pushed along at a high rate of speed.




It's a little diconcerting to see some of those near shore rad returns indicating the precipitation shield moving NNW, off the Atlantic Ocean up here; which is all underscored by having a -3.5SD negative anomaly rotating around eastern Ohio, while a hurricane is dubously situated in a narrow window of escape capability with respect to the intensifying baroclinic field along and just off shore... Man, if your just tuning in now your thinking this is the mother of all set-ups... BUT, the models insist, they will by in large remain to cohesive circulation entities as Wilma rockets by just off SE New England, while extra-tropical low just barely can't quite get the muscle to slow it down and hook NW into the mother of all phases?

Models can be wrong and am almost wondering if this will be a now-cast event for New England... This is just came out of NWS Taunton and you may find it quite interesting:
M1 437 PM: INTERNALLY SOME OF OUR FOLKS HAVE DETECTED A MODELED
GRAVITY WAVE PASSAGE IN THE SUSBMM5 PROGGED MOVING ENE ALOGN THE
SNE COAST 09Z-15Z TUE. IF THIS IS REAL...ITS GOING TO BE A A MODEL
COUP. ITS IN THE 4KM SUYSBMM5 SFC PRES AND 10 M WIND FIELD.

Time will tell...but either way, this going to be a heck of an indirect attack by this thing up here...



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