Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Mon Oct 24 2005 09:18 PM
Re: Bouy reports

Wilma is such a clever girl...with a big bag of tricks. She knows how to deal with high wind shear -- outrun it, and let it enhance your outflow! And since leaving the east coast of FL, she's developed a huge feeder band pulling warm moist air from the Gulf Stream. That, with her "good bones" -- a solid core structure -- has enabled her to do what was not forecast: to continue to intensify back to Cat 3 and maintain it right up until this evening. She deserves her own video on VH1 (put to "Staying Alive" by the BeeGees), or a movie of her own ("The Storm That Wouldn't Shrivel Up and Die!").

I kind of did a double take upon getting home about a half hour ago and then looking at the sat images (why'd they move the floater so quickly?). Then had to go read the NHC advis/disc to truly believe it.

But in the last hour or so, dry air has finally gotten into part of the core, and so begins Wilma's transformation...which will take some time, as she still had a 5-deg temp diff at the last recon! We'll see warm-hearted Wilma for just a little while longer.

* * * * * * *

OK -- I spoke too soon -- she's rushing to rebuild the convection in the eyewall and keep out that drafty air. She's done that so many times she's become a real expert at it. So until she runs out of warm water to draw from, I guess she'll maintain her warm inner core. Next card she's decided to play: shrink the size of the eye.

How far north can the Gulf Stream feed and maintain a warm-core tropical cyclone, other conditions being favorable?

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2005 -- Season of Broken Records (SOBR...because it's hard to believe, when you are)



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