HanKFranK
(User)
Tue Oct 25 2005 06:24 PM
Re: latest TWO

the twd has something to say about the sw carib feature:
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR
11N78W WITH MINIMUM PRESSURE OF ABOUT 1011 MB. THIS SYSTEM HAS
BEEN SHOWING SIGNS OF INCREASING ORGANIZATION THROUGHOUT THE DAY
WITH BANDING FEATURES BECOMING MORE PROMINENT. COMPUTER MODELS
UNANIMOUSLY SUGGEST THE AREA HAS POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT WITH VERY WARM WATER AND LIGHT WIND SHEAR IN THE
FORECAST. A SLOW DRIFT TO THE W OR WNW IS LIKELY WITH THIS
SYSTEM. SCATTERED TSTMS ARE S OF 13N BETWEEN 76W-83W.

i was thinking this would take a couple or few days to consolidate into a tropical system. this time of year in that part of the basin they tend to be broad, move slowly, and come together slowly. it may come up a little faster than expected. this thing is going to move slowly... look i'm getting from the globals and ensembles is that it may start coming up early next week.. and perhaps threaten cuba and maybe the southern end of florida in the first few days of november.
there's another low-amplitude wave approaching from the east... in about two days it should be under quite favorable upper-air conditons. take a look at the 12z ukmet, because i think that's more or less what it's going to do. not too dissimilar from alpha, really.
that vibe floating around the media about wilma being the end of the season is looking quite uncertain today.

if you're wondering about the thing further east, it gets a lesser mention as well:
W-CENTRAL ATLC WAVE IS ALONG 52W S OF 18N MOVING W 15-20 KT.
THIS WAVE SHOWS STRONG ROTATION IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS BUT HAS
CONSIDERABLY WLY SHEAR INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER UPPER
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST BY THE GFS TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE WAVE ENTERS THE LESSER ANTILLES
TOMORROW. HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE EFFECTS MOST CONCENTRATED IN THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN
49W-55W WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE FROM 9N-16N
BETWEEN 45W-57W.

HF 1824z25october



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