Tue Oct 25 2005 07:06 PM
Re: latest TWO

The 12Z GFS keeps strong westerlies (> 50 kts) at 250mb throughout the entire Gulf of Mexico for at least the next week, with another big trough forecast to dig down the eastern U.S. in 7-8 days. If that forecast of the synoptic pattern verifies, then anything that forms and tries to move north would rather quickly be shunted off to the NE away from the U.S., or else likely be signficantly sheared as it approaches the U.S. Obviously, that is still a ways off, so the pattern could end up being somewhat different.

The trend seems to be for the weather pattern to become hostile for any tropical system that tries to approach the U.S. in the near future, but any strong storm that might form in the Caribbean would still be a concern, even if it would be likely to reach the U.S. in a weakened state.

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