typhoon_tip
(Meteorologist)
Tue Oct 25 2005 03:26 PM
Re: latest TWO

Quote:

Curious about the discussion on SSTs. My impression, at least for the Atlantic, is that the temps don't move very quickly, but several posters have said that the temps in the Gulf will be cooled off enough from this front to make any US action likely. Does the Gulf cool off that quickly?




Those "...any US likely" claims are very risky - by the way - and cannot be made with much scientific certainty. Let me just make a supposition:
...We took note of how fast Wilma accelerated once she was caught up in the steering field of a large scale trough... It is NOT a huge leap of imagination that a TC could get firing in the still heat potentail laden Caribbean and then get accelerated N at such translational speed as to be insufficient timing wise for cooler waters to have an impact.

Another clue to the riskiness of making such an assertion: Nova Scotia. For 150-200naut miles S of the Nova Scotia SST's in the warmest ocean period of the year rarely eclipse the mid 50s. That's some 20 degrees colder than the coldest water in the area of the eastern Gulf at this time in lieu of Wilma. Nova Scotia was struck by a category 2 hurricane as recent as 2004.

The key here is the translational speed... There is a noted lag time for TC's and their proximities to warm waters and their ability to make use of that fuel source. This not a fix time-value, because other parameters have an influence; such, upper air mechanics... But, in general, there is a time dependency... If a hurricane developes over a warm environment, particularly if it gets strong and then is yanked at ludicrous speed like Wilma was into a colder environment, the hurricane can get hundreds of miles before losing tropical characteristics/momentum in some extreme cases.

Believe me, if Nova Scotia can get a cat 2 up there, and New England can get a category 3 (several times including 1938), 75F SST's in the Gulf will be of minor detriment.



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