WRN CARIBBEAN...
ALL THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING ALL THE NCEP ENSMEMBERS...FORM A TROP
CYC IN THE WRN CARIBBEAN ARND 24 HRS DUE TO THE INTERACTION OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE WHICH SPAWNED T.S. ALPHA AND A FRONTAL ZONE
EXTENDING FROM THE INCREASINGLY-NONTROPICAL CYCLONE KNOWN AS
WILMA. MOVEMENT SHOULD BE SLOW TO THE NORTH AS THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE REMAINS TO ITS NE THROUGHOUT THE NEXT WEEK...AND A SFC HIGH
TO ITS NORTH LIMITS MOTION IN THAT DIRECTION. IT IS ACKNOWLEDGED
THAT THE MDLS TEND TO DVLP THESE SYS ROUGHLY A DAY TOO FAST PER
COORDINATION W/TPC...BUT EITHER WAY IT IS LOOKING LIKE A CYCLONE
WILL BE LURKING OFFSHORE CNTRL AMERICA AND CUBA OVER THE NEXT 7
DAYS. SEE THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS FROM TPC/NHC AND
LATER DISCUSSIONS FROM HPC CONCERNING THIS FEATURE.

ROTH/CLARK